Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
